What to look for in our 2019 economy

As Mark Twain never said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.

They will include

  • a growth recession in China,
  • a rise in global long-term real interest rates and
  • – a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.
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Expensive placebos work better

The placebo effect is interesting for marketers. It seems like magic, the fact that just thinking that you’re getting some treatment of benefit can have actual benefits.

Magic, though, it is not. This new study in the journal Neurology (press release here) is, at first, one of the weirder placebo effects yet documented.

Lets go over the placebo effect

Where you pay appropriate clinical attention a positive response is received.… Read more

When FOMO becomes FOGO

The Dow dropped 6.9% this week, to 22,445, and is down 9.2% for the year. It’s down 16.3% from its all-time peak in September.  But rolling back 21 months of gains in the stock market — from September 2018 back to January 2017 — is nothing. The big deal is how much the Dow has surged over those 21 months from 20,000 to the peak in September: 35%… driven by an enormous amount of FOMO – fear of missing out.… Read more

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.”

Here are Saxo Banks predictions for 2018… yes they said they were outrageous and they managed two and a half … not bad

So what do they think about 2019?  Which ones do you think will come to pass?

“While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2019, they represent a warning of a potential misallocation of risk among investors who typically see just a one percent likelihood to these events materialising.”

 

So here we go…

1.Read more

Best source for Brexit

I don’t think I can add to this

The UK’s former representative to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers spoke at the invitation of the University of Liverpool’s Heseltine Institute for Public Policy, Practice and Place.

Watch the video:
Part One: https://stream.liv.ac.uk/s/avayyhv5
Part Two: https://stream.liv.ac.uk/s/f8p8jadm

Here’s the the script

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

for a “European view” the London review of books offers this

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n01/on-brexit/what-europeans-talk-about-when-they-talk-about-brexit

 

and here’s Ian Welsh’s View of what’s driving the EU

“The EU, as it stands now, was designed by a set of people that had different attitudes and goals over time. … Read more