Update on China Banking

Reuters comments that China’s credit woes are bubbling up into the news again. I have included these reviews for those of you who are part of Chinese businesses (previously here and here).

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The World Bank’s top economist, Kaushik Basu, is worried about China’s reliance on credit to fuel growth. He said last week that eventually credit will catch up with it: “We’ve seen that in the U.S.… Read more

Go on, make that offer FIRST…

One concept I’ve slowly learnt from business is that contrary to the commonly held wisdom, people who make the opening offer in a negotiation have the upper hand.

I’m currently looking for a house, overseas. And when I come to view places, typically there is a price indicated.  Although I may disagree with it, that price certainly puts a value perception in my mind about the house.… Read more

Soc Gen Black Swans – June 2014

Societe Generale is out with its famous quarterly black swan chart.

Black swan events are those that have a low probability of occurring, but also have the potential to roil financial markets if they occur.

With a 30% probability, a Chinese hard landing (four straight quarters of below 5% growth) poses the most significant downside risk, according to SocGen.

They think the likely triggers will be domestic issues.… Read more

Another Oil Shock?

Possibly yes.

Here’s a quick review of what’s currently impacting oil pricing.

The violence in Iraq continues as radical Islamist militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) try to seize more territory in the northern part of the country. Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC (after Saudi Arabia) and the conflict is likely to affect production in the region.… Read more