AS we wind down to exiting and new 2015, here’s some more doom and gloom from the major Banks. This is one of the first slides from Deutsche Bank’s “The House View” slide deck on the current state of the world. A couple of things to note here:
Deutsche thinks that both a renewed European crisis and a Chinese hard landing are relatively likely and relatively significant. Those two risks alone are worth worrying about. The only sign of positivity in this chart is that a goldilocks scenario (everything is “just right”) materializes (very unlikely). A goldilocks scenario isn’t even really that great, it just means that everything’s sort of going okay and there are no crises. The key takeaway here is that the likelihood of a crisis is higher than the likelihood that things go smoothly in the coming months. So be prepared for some potentially turbulent water ahead.