What to look for in our 2019 economy

As Mark Twain never said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.

They will include

  • a growth recession in China,
  • a rise in global long-term real interest rates and
  • – a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.
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Doom & Gloom from Deutsche bank

AS we wind down to exiting and new 2015, here’s some more doom and gloom from the major Banks.   This is one of the first slides from Deutsche Bank’s “The House View” slide deck on the current state of the world. A couple of things to note here:

IMG_1262.JPG Deutsche thinks that both a renewed European crisis and a Chinese hard landing are relatively likely and relatively significant.… Read more