So who are the big winners on the swings and losers on the roundabouts of the current oil price declines- the only local swings/roundabouts trade off is in Malaysia where the loss in oil export revenue will be partly offset by a reduction in petrol and fuel oil subsidies.
Obviously buyers are winners and sellers are losers, but what’s the annualized impact as a percentage of a countries GDP?
Of local nations, Singapore is one the big winners, with oil reducing from USD$108 to 68 per barrel the amount of GDP spent on oil reduces from 16.9% to 11.1% meaning a saving of 5.8% of GDP or US$17.3 billion.
Malaysia is a small loser, the reduction in price of oil sales will reduce GDP by 0.2% or US$-630 million in reduced revenue. But as the cost of imported fuel oil will reduce the state subsidy will likely decrease as well… Maybe even netting off the export losses.
Indonesia is a big importer and the reduced price means a GDP surplus of 1.1% or almost US$ 10 billion.
Around the world
The Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Angola–three West African nations that rely on oil to fund the lion’s share of their economy and state revenues–will likely be hit the hardest. The near-$40 a barrel fall in crude prices represents billions of dollars in lost revenue equivalent to roughly 20% of their gross domestic product.
For Djibouti, Seychelles and Kyrgyzstan, whose net oil imports take a huge chunk out of their economies, the decline in prices is a boon worth up to 11% of their GDP, allowing consumers to spend on goods and services that can fuel economic growth.
In dollar terms, the price drop translates into a $117 billion loss in revenues for Saudi Arabia if oil prices hold for another six to eight months, based on that country’s massive exports of crude. Russia, already in recession, could lose nearly $100 billion in revenues, almost 5% of the country’s GDP. Iran’s also in similar straits, maimed by international sanctions and a falling currency, with the price drop slicing off 5% of its GDP in revenues. And Kuwait could see its oil income fall by $32 billion, almost one-fifth of the country’s GDP.