Why the price of oil will continue to fall?

Energy stocks jumped after the November US election because investors thought new management in Washington would be their ticket to higher pricing. But lets take a look at things from a more detailed perspective?

On the surface, with President Trump promising to reduce the Oil and Gas industry’s regulatory burden and open more federal land and offshore areas to drilling it was clear things would get better.  … Read more

Early warning? Hanjin collapse

Whilst this may seem tangential to Acumen, the background and implications are troublesome.

A robust economy would not thriw up such challenges. The flow on effects through the supply chain are widespread. And the refusal of the Korean Government to assist is a major policy change.

Hanjin Shipping Co Ltd’s banks are halting support for the South Korean company, its lead creditor said, making it likely South Korea’s largest shipper (and the worlds 7th largest)  is headed for bankruptcy as it is dragged down by a deep global industry downturn.… Read more

Oil Price jitters- is it up or is it down

Oil prices continued their rally this week, after an 8% surge on Friday 30 January.

As some traders try to identify the bottom in oil prices, Morgan Stanley warns that “small crude oil rallies can occur, but are likely limited and unsustainable.”

Data from Baker Hughes last week showed that US oil rigs posted a weekly decline that was the most since the drilling company started collecting the data.… Read more

Tomorrow’s Oil Shock?

While today’s pricing is low… See my previous post, tomorrow’s Oil pricing will inevitably rise, and there will be accompanying spikes in the pricing.

Why?

The answer is Simple demand-supply economics.

There is no steady equilibrium in Oil production. Oil is a finite commodity and the wells which produce oil, tend to produce less oil each year. While demand tends to increase by a modest 1-1.5% per year (around 1 million barrels a day) , without new sources of oil the production of oil declines by around 6% per year as older wells run dry ( around 5.5 million barrels a day).… Read more

How much do you trust Economists and Forecasters?

Like you I read a certain amount of economic forecasts and share price forecasts. This was especially true when I was creating budgets for the next year- GDP forecasts were one of the few things we could identify to assist benchmark our plans.  I scoured research to provide some insight into what the future offered.

Once found, I didn’t take the time to actually verify the quality of sources, I had no idea how accurate they had been the in the past and whether the information was actually useful.… Read more