Doom & Gloom from Deutsche bank

AS we wind down to exiting and new 2015, here’s some more doom and gloom from the major Banks.   This is one of the first slides from Deutsche Bank’s “The House View” slide deck on the current state of the world. A couple of things to note here:

IMG_1262.JPG Deutsche thinks that both a renewed European crisis and a Chinese hard landing are relatively likely and relatively significant.… Read more

Oil SHOCK!

The world is in the grip of a new oil shock. The shock is that prices have been collapsing.

Last week crude oil dipped briefly below US$70 a barrel. That’s about one-third cheaper than in June 2014.  Prices are back at levels not seen since September 2010, when demand was still in a post-financial crisis slump.

The big reason often quoted now is that US production is going through the roof.… Read more

What’s the likely impact of rising US Interest rates

Our economic future is increasingly in her hands.

We have been enjoying a ZIRP  (US zero interest rate policy) world recently. With the improvement in the US economy, the Fed suggested at its policy meeting in March that the program may end this coming autumn and it may start raising interest rates about six months from then. The latest pronouncements have underlined this, pointing out that the Fed responds to data and the data is looking better and better.Read more

How much do you trust Economists and Forecasters?

Like you I read a certain amount of economic forecasts and share price forecasts. This was especially true when I was creating budgets for the next year- GDP forecasts were one of the few things we could identify to assist benchmark our plans.  I scoured research to provide some insight into what the future offered.

Once found, I didn’t take the time to actually verify the quality of sources, I had no idea how accurate they had been the in the past and whether the information was actually useful.… Read more