The future mistrust of startups

We live in a very trusting investment world.

The business model appears to be;

  • Set up a company, with a tech-like focus
  • do amazing PR at a time when more money than sense is looking for a home (thank you loose monetary policy),
  • expand in such a way that no one is much bothered by the impossibility of profitability,
  • focus on generating market share to create a “network effect”
  • make the game last at least until you are rich.
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Update on Uber

Uber has effectively sold itself to its investors as a tech company that simulates countless one-on-one negotiations between drivers and riders that, on an infinite timescale and with infinite patience is very much a technological product.

Except Uber isn’t quite doing this– its employing drivers who use their own cars to replace taxis (and delivery vans). Its clearly limited to the physical world, and isn’t infinitely scaleable at no cost.… Read more

WeWork valuation update

Seems a lot of negative news is provoking a response

Softbank- after investing US$10.5Bn at a US$47Bn valuation in WeWork – now doesn’t want a WeWork IPO … one way not to recognise a potentially heavy investment loss is to close your eyes, ignore the evidence and pretend nothing has happened, reports the FT .  A listing would expose the horrible truth about the allegedly hip workspace landlord isn’t worth its US$47Bn value.… Read more

What’s a tech company?

Tech companies command fantastic valuations and are routinely exempt from doing things that tired old-fashioned analog companies do- like make a profit, or make strategic sense.

But really, what is a tech company? Soon to IPO, WeWork and Peloton, don’t have much in common: one company rents empty buildings and converts them into office space, and the other sells home fitness equipment and streaming classes, both, though, claim to be tech companies.… Read more