Let zombie unicorn Uber die… to let profitable businesses survive

The coronavirus has crushed the major drivers of Uber’s urban car services demand, including business travel and discretionary urban entertainment (clubs, restaurants, etc.). Their customers remain highly concerned about the health risks of all forms of public transportation.

Last Thursday, Uber announced a first half 2020 GAAP loss of $4.7 billion with a GAAP net margin of (-81%). Uber’s “official” full year 2019 result was a GAAP loss of $8.5 billion with a (-60%) margin, but these were based on problematic accounting that makes it impossible to evaluate Uber’s financial performance properly over time.… Read more

The future mistrust of startups

We live in a very trusting investment world.

The business model appears to be;

  • Set up a company, with a tech-like focus
  • do amazing PR at a time when more money than sense is looking for a home (thank you loose monetary policy),
  • expand in such a way that no one is much bothered by the impossibility of profitability,
  • focus on generating market share to create a “network effect”
  • make the game last at least until you are rich.
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Update on Uber

Uber has effectively sold itself to its investors as a tech company that simulates countless one-on-one negotiations between drivers and riders that, on an infinite timescale and with infinite patience is very much a technological product.

Except Uber isn’t quite doing this– its employing drivers who use their own cars to replace taxis (and delivery vans). Its clearly limited to the physical world, and isn’t infinitely scaleable at no cost.… Read more

Strategy is…

“A plan to influence others to act in your interests”
Has been that was since the dawn of man…
The present venture capitalists contribution to thinking about “business strategy” is the addition of blind faith to pragmatism.
Faith that by investing tens of billions of dollars into an obviously money losing business (that can never make money ) and subsidising consumers to use these services will make itself  successful.
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Three futures for public transport

The problem with ride-sharing is simple; Lyft and Uber are losing a lot of money.

They are doing so to increase market share: To drive taxis out of business.That they are losing money, and the fact that they are highly valued means that they, and all their investors, expect that they will eventually stop losing money and start making it hand over fist.

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