The Un-Covid future… how are we going to transition from our current protective bubble wrap back into a hopefully more open world.
The Lancet identifies five critical steps to rational exit. With four identifying administrative capabilities, the skills/ resources that underpin the authorities’ power and influence within the community
• ability to track infection status
• public health capacity
• health system capacity
• border control
The fifth, importantly focuses on Community engagement and our trust in the authorities to do the job and supporting and reinforcing our compliance with their plans. In the long run, though, we all must transition from compliance to commitment. Only if the changes we must make are internalised and people are intrinsically motivated rather than compelled by public shaming or government actions.
Much as I agree with the general thrust, I believe the authors omit two critical elements necessary for our sustained exit.
1. Government intent… will governments choose lives over livelihoods. For us all there must be an accepted vision of what a plausible future looks like and what exit entails. Accompanying this should be another public realisation that any vaccine (depending on availability, quantity and cost) will not be a silver bullet just another arrow in the quiver (with a triad of responsible behaviours ; tracking compliance, appropriate social distancing & mask wearing)
2. Sustaining a sense of Urgency … changing behaviour is tough, maintaining changed behaviour over months into years is harder still. We become easily bored with often perceived unreasonable compliance procedures and wearied by our exertions without tangible results.
I’d suggest learning from the UKs NHS which has endured decades of endless change by their focus on “energy for change” . We need governments to start thinking about equipping all of us with more skills to create our own psychological, social, spiritual energies in addition to the typical intellectual and physical energies.
So, exit isn’t easy but I’m certain we’ll muddle our way forward without grand strategies but with perseverance.